SCP vs SCF
SC Paderborn (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 66% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SCP win 33.9% fair 2.95
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
SCF win 43.3% fair 2.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.4% / 22.4% / 46.2%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.50
—
1.86
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 SCF | 9.7% | |
| SCP 1-2 SCF | 9.0% | |
| SCP 2-1 SCF | 7.3% | |
| SCP 2-2 SCF | 6.8% | |
| SCP 0-1 SCF | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).