SCP vs SCF
SC Paderborn (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
SCP win 35.0% fair 2.86
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
SCF win 42.3% fair 2.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.6% / 22.4% / 45.1%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.55
—
1.86
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.8% | fair 2.96 |
| Both teams to score | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 SCF | 9.5% | |
| SCP 1-2 SCF | 8.8% | |
| SCP 2-1 SCF | 7.4% | |
| SCP 2-2 SCF | 6.9% | |
| SCP 0-1 SCF | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).