SCP vs BMG
SC Paderborn (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 43.3% fair 2.31
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
BMG win 33.0% fair 3.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.2% / 23.6% / 33.2%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.68
—
1.44
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 BMG | 10.7% | |
| SCP 2-1 BMG | 9.0% | |
| SCP 1-2 BMG | 7.7% | |
| SCP 1-0 BMG | 7.4% | |
| SCP 2-2 BMG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).