SCP vs HSV
SC Paderborn (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 63%
Match Outcome
SCP win 38.6% fair 2.59
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
HSV win 37.4% fair 2.67
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.1% / 24.0% / 38.9%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.51
—
1.55
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 HSV | 11.0% | |
| SCP 1-2 HSV | 8.5% | |
| SCP 2-1 HSV | 8.3% | |
| SCP 0-1 HSV | 7.3% | |
| SCP 1-0 HSV | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).