SCP vs HSV
SC Paderborn (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 71% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 1-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SCP win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
HSV win 34.6% fair 2.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.9% / 24.9% / 35.2%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.49
—
1.38
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 HSV | 11.7% | |
| SCP 2-1 HSV | 8.7% | |
| SCP 1-0 HSV | 8.5% | |
| SCP 1-2 HSV | 8.1% | |
| SCP 0-1 HSV | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).