SCP vs TSG
SC Paderborn (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 68% · pregame locked (09-20 · FT 3-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SCP win 28.6% fair 3.50
Draw 21.5% fair 4.65
TSG win 50.0% fair 2.00
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.0% / 20.9% / 54.1%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.39
—
2.11
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.0% | fair 3.12 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-2 TSG | 9.3% | |
| SCP 1-1 TSG | 8.8% | |
| SCP 0-2 TSG | 6.7% | |
| SCP 1-3 TSG | 6.6% | |
| SCP 2-2 TSG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).