SCP vs TSG
SC Paderborn (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
SCP win 29.0% fair 3.45
Draw 21.0% fair 4.75
TSG win 50.0% fair 2.00
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.0% / 20.3% / 54.8%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.46
—
2.22
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.2% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.8% | fair 3.47 |
| Both teams to score | 68.5% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-2 TSG | 9.1% | |
| SCP 1-1 TSG | 8.2% | |
| SCP 1-3 TSG | 6.7% | |
| SCP 2-2 TSG | 6.6% | |
| SCP 0-2 TSG | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).