SCP vs KOE
SC Paderborn (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 40.0% fair 2.50
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
KOE win 35.7% fair 2.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.2% / 24.4% / 36.4%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.52
—
1.46
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 KOE | 11.3% | |
| SCP 2-1 KOE | 8.6% | |
| SCP 1-2 KOE | 8.2% | |
| SCP 1-0 KOE | 7.7% | |
| SCP 0-1 KOE | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).