SCP vs RBL
SC Paderborn (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 24.0% fair 4.16
Draw 20.4% fair 4.90
RBL win 55.6% fair 1.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.3% / 19.7% / 60.0%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.25
—
2.24
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.7% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.3% | fair 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-2 RBL | 9.6% | |
| SCP 1-1 RBL | 8.5% | |
| SCP 0-2 RBL | 7.7% | |
| SCP 1-3 RBL | 7.2% | |
| SCP 0-1 RBL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).