SCP vs B04
SC Paderborn (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 26.0% fair 3.84
Draw 21.1% fair 4.73
B04 win 52.8% fair 1.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.7% / 20.6% / 56.7%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.30
—
2.14
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.2% | fair 3.01 |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-2 B04 | 9.5% | |
| SCP 1-1 B04 | 8.9% | |
| SCP 0-2 B04 | 7.4% | |
| SCP 0-1 B04 | 6.9% | |
| SCP 1-3 B04 | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).