SCP vs M05
SC Paderborn (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 37.5% fair 2.67
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
M05 win 38.5% fair 2.60
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.2% / 24.0% / 39.8%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.49
—
1.57
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.1% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 M05 | 11.0% | |
| SCP 1-2 M05 | 8.6% | |
| SCP 2-1 M05 | 8.2% | |
| SCP 0-1 M05 | 7.4% | |
| SCP 1-0 M05 | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).