SCP vs S04
SC Paderborn (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 53%
Match Outcome
SCP win 42.3% fair 2.37
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
S04 win 34.3% fair 2.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.6% / 23.2% / 35.2%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.70
—
1.55
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 S04 | 10.2% | |
| SCP 2-1 S04 | 8.7% | |
| SCP 1-2 S04 | 7.9% | |
| SCP 2-2 S04 | 6.7% | |
| SCP 1-0 S04 | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).