SCP vs S04
SC Paderborn (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 65% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 41.3% fair 2.42
Draw 25.7% fair 3.88
S04 win 32.9% fair 3.04
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.6% / 26.2% / 33.2%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.39
—
1.23
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 S04 | 12.5% | |
| SCP 1-0 S04 | 10.1% | |
| SCP 0-1 S04 | 9.0% | |
| SCP 2-1 S04 | 8.6% | |
| SCP 1-2 S04 | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).