SCP vs VFB
SC Paderborn (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 70% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 0-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SCP win 27.6% fair 3.62
Draw 21.4% fair 4.68
VFB win 51.0% fair 1.96
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.2% / 20.8% / 55.0%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.36
—
2.12
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.5% | fair 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-2 VFB | 9.4% | |
| SCP 1-1 VFB | 8.9% | |
| SCP 0-2 VFB | 6.9% | |
| SCP 1-3 VFB | 6.7% | |
| SCP 0-1 VFB | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).