SCP vs VFB
SC Paderborn (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
SCP win 27.2% fair 3.67
Draw 20.2% fair 4.94
VFB win 52.5% fair 1.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.0% / 19.3% / 57.7%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.47
—
2.37
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.8% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.2% | fair 3.81 |
| Both teams to score | 69.8% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-2 VFB | 8.9% | |
| SCP 1-1 VFB | 7.5% | |
| SCP 1-3 VFB | 7.0% | |
| SCP 2-2 VFB | 6.5% | |
| SCP 0-2 VFB | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).