SCP vs FCU
SC Paderborn (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCP win 42.6% fair 2.35
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
FCU win 32.8% fair 3.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.3% / 24.8% / 32.9%.
Expected Goals
SCP
1.54
—
1.33
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCP 1-1 FCU | 11.6% | |
| SCP 2-1 FCU | 8.9% | |
| SCP 1-0 FCU | 8.7% | |
| SCP 1-2 FCU | 7.7% | |
| SCP 0-1 FCU | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCP goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).