S04 vs FCA
Schalke 04 (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 38.0% fair 2.63
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
FCA win 37.6% fair 2.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.8% / 24.5% / 38.7%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.46
—
1.50
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 FCA | 11.3% | |
| S04 1-2 FCA | 8.5% | |
| S04 2-1 FCA | 8.3% | |
| S04 0-1 FCA | 7.7% | |
| S04 1-0 FCA | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).