S04 vs BAY
Schalke 04 (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 72% · pregame locked (09-05 · FT 0-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
S04 win 14.7% fair 6.81
Draw 14.3% fair 6.99
BAY win 71.0% fair 1.41
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 8.9% / 12.4% / 78.7%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.03
—
3.13
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.4% | fair 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 21.6% | fair 4.64 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| S04 0-3 BAY | 8.0% | |
| S04 1-2 BAY | 7.9% | |
| S04 0-2 BAY | 7.7% | |
| S04 1-4 BAY | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 7.4 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).