S04 vs BAY
Schalke 04 (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 71%
Match Outcome
S04 win 16.6% fair 6.03
Draw 15.8% fair 6.33
BAY win 67.6% fair 1.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 10.9% / 14.1% / 75.0%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.07
—
2.91
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.9% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.1% | fair 4.14 |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-2 BAY | 8.5% | |
| S04 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| S04 0-2 BAY | 7.9% | |
| S04 0-3 BAY | 7.7% | |
| S04 1-4 BAY | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 6.2 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).