S04 vs SVW
Schalke 04 (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 41.0% fair 2.44
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
SVW win 33.9% fair 2.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.4% / 25.3% / 34.3%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.46
—
1.33
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 SVW | 11.9% | |
| S04 1-0 SVW | 9.0% | |
| S04 2-1 SVW | 8.7% | |
| S04 0-1 SVW | 8.2% | |
| S04 1-2 SVW | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).