S04 vs BVB
Schalke 04 (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
S04 win 23.1% fair 4.33
Draw 20.6% fair 4.85
BVB win 56.3% fair 1.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.4% / 19.9% / 61.7%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.12
—
2.19
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.8% | fair 2.79 |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-2 BVB | 9.8% | |
| S04 1-1 BVB | 9.0% | |
| S04 0-2 BVB | 8.8% | |
| S04 0-1 BVB | 8.0% | |
| S04 1-3 BVB | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).