S04 vs BVB
Schalke 04 (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 22.9% fair 4.37
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
BVB win 53.4% fair 1.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 19.4% / 23.6% / 57.0%.
Expected Goals
S04
0.90
—
1.73
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 0-1 BVB | 12.4% | |
| S04 1-1 BVB | 11.2% | |
| S04 0-2 BVB | 10.8% | |
| S04 1-2 BVB | 9.7% | |
| S04 0-0 BVB | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).