S04 vs ELV
Schalke 04 (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 53%
Match Outcome
S04 win 45.8% fair 2.18
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
ELV win 31.2% fair 3.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.5% / 22.7% / 30.9%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.83
—
1.46
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 ELV | 9.9% | |
| S04 2-1 ELV | 9.1% | |
| S04 1-2 ELV | 7.3% | |
| S04 1-0 ELV | 6.8% | |
| S04 2-2 ELV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).