S04 vs SCF
Schalke 04 (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 32.9% fair 3.04
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
SCF win 42.6% fair 2.35
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.9% / 24.6% / 44.5%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.28
—
1.59
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 SCF | 11.5% | |
| S04 1-2 SCF | 9.2% | |
| S04 0-1 SCF | 9.0% | |
| S04 2-1 SCF | 7.4% | |
| S04 1-0 SCF | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).