S04 vs BMG
Schalke 04 (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
BMG win 31.2% fair 3.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.4% / 24.6% / 31.0%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.59
—
1.29
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 BMG | 11.5% | |
| S04 2-1 BMG | 9.2% | |
| S04 1-0 BMG | 8.9% | |
| S04 1-2 BMG | 7.4% | |
| S04 0-1 BMG | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).