S04 vs HSV
Schalke 04 (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 42.3% fair 2.36
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
HSV win 31.6% fair 3.17
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.0% / 26.6% / 31.5%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.38
—
1.16
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 HSV | 12.6% | |
| S04 1-0 HSV | 10.9% | |
| S04 0-1 HSV | 9.1% | |
| S04 2-1 HSV | 8.7% | |
| S04 0-0 HSV | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).