S04 vs TSG
Schalke 04 (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 31.7% fair 3.16
Draw 23.3% fair 4.28
TSG win 45.0% fair 2.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.4% / 23.2% / 47.4%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.35
—
1.77
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.6% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 TSG | 10.5% | |
| S04 1-2 TSG | 9.3% | |
| S04 0-1 TSG | 7.8% | |
| S04 2-1 TSG | 7.1% | |
| S04 0-2 TSG | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).