S04 vs KOE
Schalke 04 (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 41.1% fair 2.44
Draw 25.2% fair 3.96
KOE win 33.7% fair 2.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.5% / 25.5% / 34.0%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.45
—
1.30
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 KOE | 12.1% | |
| S04 1-0 KOE | 9.2% | |
| S04 2-1 KOE | 8.7% | |
| S04 0-1 KOE | 8.3% | |
| S04 1-2 KOE | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).