S04 vs RBL
Schalke 04 (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
S04 win 28.4% fair 3.52
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
RBL win 50.0% fair 2.00
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.6% / 21.0% / 54.4%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.36
—
2.09
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | fair 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-2 RBL | 9.4% | |
| S04 1-1 RBL | 9.0% | |
| S04 0-2 RBL | 7.0% | |
| S04 0-1 RBL | 6.6% | |
| S04 1-3 RBL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).