S04 vs RBL
Schalke 04 (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 25.4% fair 3.94
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
RBL win 52.7% fair 1.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.1% / 21.5% / 56.4%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.18
—
2.00
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.3% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-2 RBL | 9.8% | |
| S04 1-1 RBL | 9.8% | |
| S04 0-2 RBL | 8.3% | |
| S04 0-1 RBL | 8.3% | |
| S04 1-3 RBL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).