S04 vs B04
Schalke 04 (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 27.4% fair 3.65
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
B04 win 50.1% fair 2.00
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.5% / 22.3% / 53.3%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.23
—
1.91
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.2% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 B04 | 10.2% | |
| S04 1-2 B04 | 9.7% | |
| S04 0-1 B04 | 8.2% | |
| S04 0-2 B04 | 7.9% | |
| S04 2-1 B04 | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).