S04 vs M05
Schalke 04 (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
S04 win 39.6% fair 2.53
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
M05 win 36.2% fair 2.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.4% / 24.3% / 37.3%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.51
—
1.48
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 M05 | 11.2% | |
| S04 2-1 M05 | 8.5% | |
| S04 1-2 M05 | 8.3% | |
| S04 1-0 M05 | 7.6% | |
| S04 0-1 M05 | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).