S04 vs SCP
Schalke 04 (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 65% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
SCP win 30.2% fair 3.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.5% / 25.8% / 29.7%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.47
—
1.16
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 SCP | 12.3% | |
| S04 1-0 SCP | 10.6% | |
| S04 2-1 SCP | 9.1% | |
| S04 0-1 SCP | 8.3% | |
| S04 2-0 SCP | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).