S04 vs VFB
Schalke 04 (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
S04 win 29.3% fair 3.41
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
VFB win 49.5% fair 2.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.8% / 20.6% / 53.6%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.47
—
2.17
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.4% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.6% | fair 3.38 |
| Both teams to score | 68.2% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-2 VFB | 9.1% | |
| S04 1-1 VFB | 8.4% | |
| S04 2-2 VFB | 6.7% | |
| S04 1-3 VFB | 6.6% | |
| S04 0-2 VFB | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).