S04 vs VFB
Schalke 04 (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 30.3% fair 3.30
Draw 23.7% fair 4.23
VFB win 46.0% fair 2.17
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.9% / 23.6% / 48.5%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.26
—
1.73
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 VFB | 10.9% | |
| S04 1-2 VFB | 9.5% | |
| S04 0-1 VFB | 8.7% | |
| S04 0-2 VFB | 7.5% | |
| S04 2-1 VFB | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).