S04 vs FCU
Schalke 04 (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
S04 win 43.5% fair 2.30
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
FCU win 31.0% fair 3.23
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.4% / 25.8% / 30.8%.
Expected Goals
S04
1.46
—
1.19
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| S04 1-1 FCU | 12.3% | |
| S04 1-0 FCU | 10.3% | |
| S04 2-1 FCU | 9.0% | |
| S04 0-1 FCU | 8.4% | |
| S04 2-0 FCU | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: S04 goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).