VFB vs FCA
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 55.6% fair 1.80
Draw 20.1% fair 4.97
FCA win 24.3% fair 4.12
Expected Goals
VFB
2.31
—
1.44
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.3% | fair 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.7% | fair 3.61 |
| Both teams to score | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 FCA | 9.0% | |
| VFB 1-1 FCA | 7.8% | |
| VFB 3-1 FCA | 7.0% | |
| VFB 2-2 FCA | 6.5% | |
| VFB 2-0 FCA | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).