VFB vs BAY
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 21.1% fair 4.73
Draw 18.1% fair 5.52
BAY win 60.8% fair 1.65
Expected Goals
VFB
1.42
—
2.62
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.7% | fair 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.3% | fair 4.30 |
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 1-2 BAY | 8.6% | |
| VFB 1-3 BAY | 7.5% | |
| VFB 1-1 BAY | 6.5% | |
| VFB 2-2 BAY | 6.1% | |
| VFB 0-2 BAY | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).