VFB vs SVW
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 58.9% fair 1.70
Draw 19.8% fair 5.04
SVW win 21.3% fair 4.69
Expected Goals
VFB
2.31
—
1.27
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.6% | fair 3.27 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 SVW | 9.4% | |
| VFB 1-1 SVW | 8.2% | |
| VFB 2-0 SVW | 7.4% | |
| VFB 3-1 SVW | 7.3% | |
| VFB 1-0 SVW | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).