VFB vs SVW
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
VFB win 63.6% fair 1.57
Draw 18.4% fair 5.42
SVW win 18.0% fair 5.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.6% / 17.6% / 15.8%.
Expected Goals
VFB
2.49
—
1.15
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.4% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.6% | fair 3.38 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 SVW | 9.4% | |
| VFB 2-0 SVW | 8.1% | |
| VFB 3-1 SVW | 7.8% | |
| VFB 1-1 SVW | 7.5% | |
| VFB 3-0 SVW | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).