VFB vs BVB
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (09-19 · FT 0-1 ) · lineup adj ×0.96 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VFB win 36.9% fair 2.71
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
BVB win 40.1% fair 2.49
Expected Goals
VFB
1.60
—
1.72
BVB
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): VFB ×0.957 (matched 11), BVB ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 1-1 BVB | 10.0% | |
| VFB 1-2 BVB | 8.6% | |
| VFB 2-1 BVB | 8.0% | |
| VFB 2-2 BVB | 6.8% | |
| VFB 0-1 BVB | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).