VFB vs BVB
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
VFB win 36.4% fair 2.75
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
BVB win 41.5% fair 2.41
Expected Goals
VFB
1.71
—
1.89
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.7% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.3% | fair 3.30 |
| Both teams to score | 69.5% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 1-1 BVB | 8.8% | |
| VFB 1-2 BVB | 8.3% | |
| VFB 2-1 BVB | 7.6% | |
| VFB 2-2 BVB | 7.1% | |
| VFB 1-3 BVB | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).