VFB vs ELV
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 61.5% fair 1.63
Draw 18.7% fair 5.36
ELV win 19.8% fair 5.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.8% / 17.7% / 17.5%.
Expected Goals
VFB
2.54
—
1.28
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.4% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.6% | fair 3.76 |
| Both teams to score | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 ELV | 9.1% | |
| VFB 3-1 ELV | 7.7% | |
| VFB 1-1 ELV | 7.1% | |
| VFB 2-0 ELV | 7.1% | |
| VFB 3-0 ELV | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).