VFB vs SGE
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
VFB win 57.7% fair 1.73
Draw 18.6% fair 5.38
SGE win 23.8% fair 4.21
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.7% / 17.8% / 22.5%.
Expected Goals
VFB
2.68
—
1.65
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.7% | fair 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19.3% | fair 5.18 |
| Both teams to score | 75.3% | fair 1.33 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 SGE | 7.8% | |
| VFB 3-1 SGE | 7.0% | |
| VFB 2-2 SGE | 6.4% | |
| VFB 1-1 SGE | 5.8% | |
| VFB 3-2 SGE | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).