VFB vs SCF
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 48.9% fair 2.05
Draw 21.7% fair 4.60
SCF win 29.4% fair 3.40
Expected Goals
VFB
2.02
—
1.52
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.7% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.3% | fair 3.20 |
| Both teams to score | 67.8% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 SCF | 9.0% | |
| VFB 1-1 SCF | 8.9% | |
| VFB 2-2 SCF | 6.8% | |
| VFB 1-2 SCF | 6.8% | |
| VFB 3-1 SCF | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).