VFB vs BMG
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-23 · FT 2-3 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VFB win 63.9% fair 1.56
Draw 19.0% fair 5.26
BMG win 17.0% fair 5.87
Expected Goals
VFB
2.32
—
1.02
BMG
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): VFB ×0.900 (matched 11), BMG ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.1% | fair 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 BMG | 9.7% | |
| VFB 2-0 BMG | 9.5% | |
| VFB 1-1 BMG | 8.4% | |
| VFB 1-0 BMG | 8.2% | |
| VFB 3-1 BMG | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).