VFB vs BMG
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
VFB win 59.0% fair 1.69
Draw 19.9% fair 5.03
BMG win 21.1% fair 4.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.3% / 19.3% / 19.4%.
Expected Goals
VFB
2.31
—
1.24
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.2% | fair 3.21 |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 BMG | 9.5% | |
| VFB 1-1 BMG | 8.2% | |
| VFB 2-0 BMG | 7.7% | |
| VFB 3-1 BMG | 7.3% | |
| VFB 1-0 BMG | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).