VFB vs HSV
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 59.8% fair 1.67
Draw 20.3% fair 4.92
HSV win 19.9% fair 5.03
Expected Goals
VFB
2.18
—
1.11
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 HSV | 9.8% | |
| VFB 1-1 HSV | 9.0% | |
| VFB 2-0 HSV | 8.9% | |
| VFB 1-0 HSV | 8.1% | |
| VFB 3-1 HSV | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).