VFB vs TSG
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 47.8% fair 2.09
Draw 21.1% fair 4.75
TSG win 31.1% fair 3.21
Expected Goals
VFB
2.14
—
1.70
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.6% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.4% | fair 3.79 |
| Both teams to score | 72.0% | fair 1.39 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 TSG | 8.4% | |
| VFB 1-1 TSG | 7.8% | |
| VFB 2-2 TSG | 7.1% | |
| VFB 1-2 TSG | 6.7% | |
| VFB 3-1 TSG | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).