VFB vs KOE
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 78% · pregame locked (09-04 · FT 4-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
VFB win 59.7% fair 1.68
Draw 18.6% fair 5.37
KOE win 21.7% fair 4.61
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.0% / 17.8% / 20.1%.
Expected Goals
VFB
2.60
—
1.46
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.1% | fair 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.9% | fair 4.37 |
| Both teams to score | 71.1% | fair 1.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 KOE | 8.5% | |
| VFB 3-1 KOE | 7.4% | |
| VFB 1-1 KOE | 6.5% | |
| VFB 2-2 KOE | 6.2% | |
| VFB 2-0 KOE | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).