VFB vs KOE
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
VFB win 61.9% fair 1.62
Draw 18.2% fair 5.48
KOE win 19.9% fair 5.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.7% / 17.4% / 18.0%.
Expected Goals
VFB
2.63
—
1.35
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.9% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.1% | fair 4.15 |
| Both teams to score | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 KOE | 8.7% | |
| VFB 3-1 KOE | 7.6% | |
| VFB 1-1 KOE | 6.6% | |
| VFB 2-0 KOE | 6.4% | |
| VFB 2-2 KOE | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).