VFB vs B04
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 41.8% fair 2.39
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
B04 win 36.6% fair 2.73
Expected Goals
VFB
1.95
—
1.83
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.8% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.2% | fair 3.67 |
| Both teams to score | 72.0% | fair 1.39 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 1-1 B04 | 8.2% | |
| VFB 2-1 B04 | 7.9% | |
| VFB 1-2 B04 | 7.5% | |
| VFB 2-2 B04 | 7.3% | |
| VFB 3-1 B04 | 5.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).