VFB vs M05
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 56.1% fair 1.78
Draw 20.5% fair 4.89
M05 win 23.4% fair 4.27
Expected Goals
VFB
2.23
—
1.34
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.2% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.8% | fair 3.25 |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 M05 | 9.4% | |
| VFB 1-1 M05 | 8.4% | |
| VFB 2-0 M05 | 7.0% | |
| VFB 3-1 M05 | 7.0% | |
| VFB 2-2 M05 | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).