VFB vs SCP
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 61.4% fair 1.63
Draw 19.5% fair 5.12
SCP win 19.1% fair 5.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.6% / 18.7% / 16.7%.
Expected Goals
VFB
2.33
—
1.11
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.7% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.3% | fair 3.00 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 SCP | 9.7% | |
| VFB 2-0 SCP | 8.7% | |
| VFB 1-1 SCP | 8.3% | |
| VFB 3-1 SCP | 7.5% | |
| VFB 1-0 SCP | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).