VFB vs S04
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 58.5% fair 1.71
Draw 21.1% fair 4.74
S04 win 20.4% fair 4.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.0% / 20.6% / 18.4%.
Expected Goals
VFB
2.08
—
1.05
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 S04 | 9.9% | |
| VFB 1-1 S04 | 9.5% | |
| VFB 2-0 S04 | 9.4% | |
| VFB 1-0 S04 | 9.1% | |
| VFB 3-1 S04 | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).