VFB vs FCU
VfB Stuttgart (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VFB win 61.5% fair 1.63
Draw 19.5% fair 5.13
FCU win 19.0% fair 5.25
Expected Goals
VFB
2.31
—
1.14
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | fair 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| VFB 2-1 FCU | 9.7% | |
| VFB 2-0 FCU | 8.5% | |
| VFB 1-1 FCU | 8.4% | |
| VFB 3-1 FCU | 7.4% | |
| VFB 1-0 FCU | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VFB goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).