FCU vs BAY
Union Berlin (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 12.0% fair 8.37
Draw 13.7% fair 7.30
BAY win 74.3% fair 1.35
Expected Goals
FCU
0.97
—
3.04
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.3% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.7% | fair 4.23 |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 0-3 BAY | 8.5% | |
| FCU 0-2 BAY | 8.4% | |
| FCU 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| FCU 1-2 BAY | 8.1% | |
| FCU 0-4 BAY | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 7.2 |
| 1 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 7.0 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).