FCU vs SVW
Union Berlin (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
SVW win 35.2% fair 2.84
Expected Goals
FCU
1.58
—
1.47
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 SVW | 11.0% | |
| FCU 2-1 SVW | 8.7% | |
| FCU 1-2 SVW | 8.1% | |
| FCU 1-0 SVW | 7.4% | |
| FCU 0-1 SVW | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).