FCU vs BVB
Union Berlin (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
FCU win 24.2% fair 4.14
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
BVB win 54.3% fair 1.84
Expected Goals
FCU
1.17
—
2.03
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | fair 2.63 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-2 BVB | 9.8% | |
| FCU 1-1 BVB | 9.7% | |
| FCU 0-2 BVB | 8.4% | |
| FCU 0-1 BVB | 8.3% | |
| FCU 1-3 BVB | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).