FCU vs BVB
Union Berlin (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 0-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.92 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FCU win 20.1% fair 4.99
Draw 21.0% fair 4.75
BVB win 58.9% fair 1.70
Expected Goals
FCU
0.98
—
2.04
BVB
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): FCU ×0.923 (matched 9), BVB ×0.900 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 0-2 BVB | 10.2% | |
| FCU 0-1 BVB | 10.0% | |
| FCU 1-2 BVB | 10.0% | |
| FCU 1-1 BVB | 9.7% | |
| FCU 0-3 BVB | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).