FCU vs ELV
Union Berlin (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 69% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 1-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FCU win 41.0% fair 2.44
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
ELV win 36.2% fair 2.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.4% / 22.5% / 37.2%.
Expected Goals
FCU
1.76
—
1.68
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.1% | fair 3.02 |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 ELV | 9.5% | |
| FCU 2-1 ELV | 8.3% | |
| FCU 1-2 ELV | 8.0% | |
| FCU 2-2 ELV | 7.0% | |
| FCU 1-0 ELV | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).