FCU vs ELV
Union Berlin (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
FCU win 49.2% fair 2.03
Draw 22.6% fair 4.42
ELV win 28.2% fair 3.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.6% / 22.2% / 27.1%.
Expected Goals
FCU
1.92
—
1.35
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.5% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.5% | fair 2.74 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 ELV | 9.9% | |
| FCU 2-1 ELV | 9.4% | |
| FCU 1-0 ELV | 7.3% | |
| FCU 2-0 ELV | 7.0% | |
| FCU 1-2 ELV | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).