FCU vs SGE
Union Berlin (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
FCU win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
SGE win 37.0% fair 2.70
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.2% / 21.9% / 37.9%.
Expected Goals
FCU
1.83
—
1.77
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.8% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.2% | fair 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 69.7% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 SGE | 8.8% | |
| FCU 2-1 SGE | 8.1% | |
| FCU 1-2 SGE | 7.8% | |
| FCU 2-2 SGE | 7.2% | |
| FCU 1-0 SGE | 5.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).