FCU vs SCF
Union Berlin (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 31.9% fair 3.13
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
SCF win 44.8% fair 2.23
Expected Goals
FCU
1.39
—
1.76
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 SCF | 10.5% | |
| FCU 1-2 SCF | 9.2% | |
| FCU 0-1 SCF | 7.5% | |
| FCU 2-1 SCF | 7.3% | |
| FCU 0-2 SCF | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).