FCU vs BMG
Union Berlin (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 44.5% fair 2.25
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
BMG win 32.1% fair 3.12
Expected Goals
FCU
1.72
—
1.43
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 BMG | 10.5% | |
| FCU 2-1 BMG | 9.1% | |
| FCU 1-2 BMG | 7.5% | |
| FCU 1-0 BMG | 7.4% | |
| FCU 2-2 BMG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).